Learning
Arcadia’s Insights
What a Difference a Year Makes
Recently one of our clients commented that they were surprised at how quickly our last market downturn has faded into the past. Though it has been a year since our March 9th 2009 bottom, because of its severity, it is understandable that not all investors share this perspective. It is interesting, however, to consider how our short-term memories can affect us and our outlook. (4/12/10)
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Behavioral Biases and Investment Implications
Research indicates that humans are not naturally wired for prudent, long-term investing. Scott Bosworth, DFA Vice President and Regional Director, describes common forms of behavioral bias and discusses how these biases influence investment decision making. He also explains how knowledge and discipline can help investors control their instincts for a better investment outcome.
"What do you expect the stock market to do this year?"
This is a question we all hear or overhear or are tempted to ask this time of year. It’s not surprising that with a new year upon us we are curious about whether at the end of 2010 we’ll be healthy, happy and prosperous. But there is a surprising twist in the way this curiosity plays out. We don’t ask a medical doctor to predict how healthy we’ll be a year from now. We don’t go to a therapist and ask them to predict how happy we’ll be. Yet we routinely ask anyone who works in finance or economics how the stock market will do in the coming 12 months. (1/15/10)
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THE ECONOMY - Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Though this seems a very appropriate question for our current time, this was a question that graced the cover of Time magazine in September of 1992. On the inside was the quote that we included as an insert in this mailing. (10/12/09)
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Government Intervention and Stock Returns
Should equity investors be alarmed by the prospect of greater government intervention in the US economy? Dimensional Fund Advisors' Vice President Weston Wellington looks at examples of US intervention in the past and examines the record of stock returns around the world over the last thirty-nine years. The evidence suggests that government intervention is just one factor among many affecting stock returns, and that an above-average degree of intervention is not necessarily associated with below-average returns. (8/24/09)
Arcadia and Bernie Madoff
How do you know you can trust your investment advisor? Is it possible that you’re being set up to be swindled out of your lifetime savings nest egg? More specifically, how do you know you can trust Arcadia Investment Advisors? (7/16/09)
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Retirement, Risk and Return
Dimensional Fund Advisors' Chief Executive Officer, David Booth, discusses the importance of balancing volatility risk and purchasing power risk when investing for retirement. He explains that T-bills have not produced the real returns necessary to preserve living standards over the long haul, and illustrates how investors can manage both types of risk through an appropriate commitment to stocks. (6/17/09)
What Shoud Investors Do Now?
Dimensional Fund Advisors' Vice President, Weston Wellington, addresses the issue of what investors should consider as they move forward. The videos include an examination of capital markets, the effects of recession and government policy on stock prices, how the current market stacks up to previous downturns, and the reasons why Dimensional's core beliefs have not changed in light of these events. (4/22/09)
Insightful Observations
This is a collection of recent market commentary from sources that we feel are more in tuned with how current markets impact investors in real life versus the media outlets that mostly focus on short-term performance and whose motivation can be to increase ratings by promoting negative news that tends to be more emotional in nature. (04/13/09)
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Frequently Asked Questions
The following are some of the questions that we have been answering for our clients over the last several months. You will likely find that these are some of the questions you have asked recently, and we hope these answers may be comforting to you as you work through this difficult time.
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Buy & Hold vs. Timing the Market
Ken French, Director of Investment Strategy for Dimensional Fund Advisors and the Carl E. and Catherine M. Heidt Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, recently discussed current market conditions in an online forum with Henry Blodget on Yahoo! Finance. In this video segment Professor French comments on buy-and-hold investing, and after recent months, addresses whether this is still a viable strategy. (12/15/08)
Crisis of Confidence?
In a recent newsletter, Wells Capital Management offers some interesting and unusually optimistic perspective with respect to today's market turmoil. (12/3/08)
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The Recession - How bad is it?
Not to pick on TIME magazine, but this was the cover in January, 1992, roughly 10 months after growth had resumed! See other historical covers here ... (12/3/08)
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Current Economic Conditions
Current economic news seems completely dismal. Since October, 2007 we have witnessed shocking developments. The landscape of major financial institutions has changed forever with events such as buy outs, bailouts, takeovers, bankruptcies and bank failures that continue as this is written. This calamity is not confined to the U.S., but is occurring worldwide. And it may get worse before it gets better. (11/4/08)
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Is it Different This Time?
Please click on this link to watch a presentation recently put out by Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA). The presentation is by DFA Vice President, Weston Wellington, who offers perspective on the unpredictability of market movements, how the current market downturn compares to past bear markets, and the resilience markets have historically shown. (10/1/08)
Periodical Excerpts
With the media's focus on the current market volatility and turmoil in today's economy, it can be easy to forget that we have heard this before. (10/8/08)
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Bear Markets Since May 1945
Over the last 63 years there have been 13 bear markets, including the current one, occurring about every five years on average. In each, the circumstances that caused the decline were different than anything previously experienced, much like the unprecedented events we are witnessing today. Yet the one thing that each bear market has in common, is that they were all, in fact, temporary. (10/10/08)
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Saving for College - 529 Plans
If you are a parent, you have likely either experienced firsthand the escalating costs of higher education, or are faced with the daunting task of funding a child’s college education at some point in the not too distant future. (9/4/08)
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Market Volatility
In our letter last quarter, we referenced the frequently cited concerns of the credit crunch, possible recession, foreclosures, rising oil prices, the declining dollar and the threat of inflation. Now it’s three months later and the same concerns are still in the news and the market is down even further. We saw encouraging market recovery in April and May and then – the worst June since the Depression. The S&P 500 has declined approximately 13% since the beginning of the year. (7/31/08)
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Social Security
As Baby Boomers approach retirement age (the first baby boomers began receiving Social Security benefits in January of 2008), the issue of when to begin collecting Social Security benefits is quickly becoming a hot topic. (7/10/08)
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Stocks for the Long Run
As a follow-up to our March newsletter, in which we discussed a lecture we attended given by Jeremy Siegel, it seemed appropriate to submit a book review of the most recent edition of his book, Stocks for the Long Run. Professor Siegel originally wrote this book 13 years ago and it is now in its fourth edition. Professor Siegel initially wrote the book with two goals in mind: to document the rates of returns on the major classes of financial assets over the last 200 years and to offer strategies that maximize long-term portfolio growth. The fourth edition updates all data from the third edition and adds chapters on behavioral finance, globalization, and exchange-traded funds. (5/22/08)
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Market Volatility
As the first quarter has now come to a close, it seems we can all agree on one thing. We’re glad it’s over! The S&P 500 was down about 10% year to date, its worst quarter in 5 and 1/2 years. The news media outlets have been faithful at sounding all of the alarms of the current economic slowdown. Credit crunch, recession, foreclosures, rising oil, declining dollar, and potential inflation are all things we hear about daily. The fear of a slowdown has also lead to what seems unprecedented volatility in the markets. Though market volatility has been higher in the last year or so, it certainly is not unprecedented. (4/17/08)
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IRA Contributions
2007 & 2008 IRA contribution limits and guidelines. (3/20/08)
Conference Report
Attending conferences designed for investment advisors is one way we continue to educate ourselves as investment professionals. In turn, we are able to use this knowledge to help us bring value to our clients. Recently, Rob, Dick, and Howie attended the Charles Schwab Impact Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada. As usually is the case at these events, we were able to hear from some of the most respected minds in the financial world. (3/13/08)
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Press Release
To better serve its growing number of clients, Arcadia Investment Advisors announced the addition of its third office in Boise, Idaho. Arcadia, a fee-only investment advisory firm with over $170 million in assets under management, was founded in 1996 in Portland, Oregon and recently relocated its headquarters to Vancouver, Washington’s historic Fort Vancouver area. (10/22/07)
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Conference Report
Each year we attend conferences throughout the country for investment advisors. At these events we have the opportunity to hear from some of the best and brightest minds in the financial and investment world. Rob recently attended a conference for financial advisors in Las Vegas and reports on topics we found interesting. (7/9/07)